Oscar Sunday
Mar. 24th, 2002 04:30 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
thebratqueenShould be an interesting Oscars tonight. How many different political factions are affecting things right now? A billion?
I'm tempted to do my predictions, but they're just my educated guesses. I'd feel more confident if I had more knowledge of who spent the most money on their campaign. I've got this sneaking suspicion of a Moulin Rouge surprise a la Gladiator or Shakespeare in Love.
But, just focusing on the politics, I think Beautiful Mind is out of the running. RC had his blow up just as the ballots got mailed out and the movie itself has been panned for the flaming inaccuracies. Assuming the voters are swayed by that I think the only chance, if any, it has of a major win would be for Ron Howard in Best Director and that's only if the fact that the Academy really does "owe" him sways them more than Peter Jackson's work in LotR. If LotR does a sweep, Ron's out of the running.
RC's won an Oscar already and even if he hadn't I think he's literally beaten himself out of it. Denzel is way overdue. Does Training Day deserve it? Probably not, but god knows the Best Actor/tress is often totally irrelevant to the actual movie. I think the only real competition for Denzel is Will Smith, and that's because the Academy has been under fire for the one freakin' Oscar they've given to a black actor, and Will legitimately did a good job. But I'm going to be surprised if they snub Denzel again. Will can always try again another year.
My vote on best actress, for similar reasons, is going to Halle Berry. Plus Monster's Ball was incredibly well received and this is probably its only shot at an Oscar. If not Halle, then Sissy Spacek for In the Bedroom, another well received movie that's probably not going to get many Oscars otherwise. Best Actress is often where they throw an award at movies that were really good, but just aren't getting Best Picture for whatever reason.
Gotta be Ian for Supporting Actor. It's LotR and he's long overdue.
Best acress is probably going to be Hellen Mirren or Maggie Smith. Both are amazing actresses, both deserve Oscars just for reading the phonebook and Gosford Park needs a nod of some sort. Jennifer Connelly is a white actress in what should have been a minority role - no way she's going to get it, no matter how good she was. In the Bedroom is the only other competition here and that would mean giving another Oscar to Marisa Tomei - uh, I don't think so.
Gosford Park is damn-near a shoo-in for Best Original Screenplay, and if LotR doesn't win for adapted I think all of our jaws are going to be hitting the floor.
Guess we'll know by midnight tonight how close I was.
I'm tempted to do my predictions, but they're just my educated guesses. I'd feel more confident if I had more knowledge of who spent the most money on their campaign. I've got this sneaking suspicion of a Moulin Rouge surprise a la Gladiator or Shakespeare in Love.
But, just focusing on the politics, I think Beautiful Mind is out of the running. RC had his blow up just as the ballots got mailed out and the movie itself has been panned for the flaming inaccuracies. Assuming the voters are swayed by that I think the only chance, if any, it has of a major win would be for Ron Howard in Best Director and that's only if the fact that the Academy really does "owe" him sways them more than Peter Jackson's work in LotR. If LotR does a sweep, Ron's out of the running.
RC's won an Oscar already and even if he hadn't I think he's literally beaten himself out of it. Denzel is way overdue. Does Training Day deserve it? Probably not, but god knows the Best Actor/tress is often totally irrelevant to the actual movie. I think the only real competition for Denzel is Will Smith, and that's because the Academy has been under fire for the one freakin' Oscar they've given to a black actor, and Will legitimately did a good job. But I'm going to be surprised if they snub Denzel again. Will can always try again another year.
My vote on best actress, for similar reasons, is going to Halle Berry. Plus Monster's Ball was incredibly well received and this is probably its only shot at an Oscar. If not Halle, then Sissy Spacek for In the Bedroom, another well received movie that's probably not going to get many Oscars otherwise. Best Actress is often where they throw an award at movies that were really good, but just aren't getting Best Picture for whatever reason.
Gotta be Ian for Supporting Actor. It's LotR and he's long overdue.
Best acress is probably going to be Hellen Mirren or Maggie Smith. Both are amazing actresses, both deserve Oscars just for reading the phonebook and Gosford Park needs a nod of some sort. Jennifer Connelly is a white actress in what should have been a minority role - no way she's going to get it, no matter how good she was. In the Bedroom is the only other competition here and that would mean giving another Oscar to Marisa Tomei - uh, I don't think so.
Gosford Park is damn-near a shoo-in for Best Original Screenplay, and if LotR doesn't win for adapted I think all of our jaws are going to be hitting the floor.
Guess we'll know by midnight tonight how close I was.
